Authors

Martínez-Freiría F

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to completely modify patterns of biodiversity worldwide. In the Iberian Peninsula, Euro-Siberian reptiles are suggested as the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. One of most threatened species is Vipera seoanei for which it was forecasted a complete loss of suitable habitats already in 2020. In this work, 355 distributional records (at 1x1 km) and eight climatic variables for current and future conditions (three storylines; 2050 and 2080 periods) are analysed by combining four ecological niche-based model algorithms (ANN, GAM, GLM and MAXENT) to assess V. seoanei vulnerability to forecasted scenarios of climatic change, and to infer potential impacts in its genetic diversity. Consensus models for current conditions fit species observational data and identify two temperature and two precipitation variables as the most related to the species distribution. Prognostics for the future predict V. seoanei persistence in the Iberian Peninsula for the next future, but with dramatic reductions in suitable climatic areas for 2050 and especially for 2080. Reductions might be particularly accused along the species range margins and thus, current isolated populations from its south-western range would be highly vulnerable to extinction. Furthermore, important loss of the genetic diversity and population isolation might be favoured in the future, suggesting a high vulnerability of the species to climate change and thus, the necessity of developing further studies and monitoring programs. Other species with Euro-Siberian affinity are likely to experience similar responses and would be under similar vulnerabilities to climate change

 

Journal: Basic and Applied Herpetology

DOI: 10.11160/bah.15001